New Delhi, February 5 The Delhi Assembly elections have concluded, with voter turnout reaching 57.70% by 5 PM. While the official polling time ended at 6 PM, voters already in line were still casting their ballots. The results will be declared on February 8, but before that, all eyes are on the exit polls, expected to be released shortly.
As anticipation builds, betting markets have released their predictions, forecasting a drop in AAP’s seat count but reaffirming a Kejriwal-led government.
Betting Markets Predict AAP Victory Despite Losing Seats
According to Rajasthan’s Phalodi betting market, which has a strong track record in political forecasting, the seat projections for 2025 are as follows:
AAP: 38-40 seats (down from 62 in 2020)
BJP: 30-32 seats (a major jump from 8 in 2020)
Congress: 0-1 seats (similar to its poor 2020 performance)
Majority Mark: 36 seats required to form a government
Despite losing around 22 seats, the AAP is still projected to retain power, but with a much-reduced majority. The BJP, on the other hand, is expected to make significant gains but fall short of forming the government.
Congress, once a dominant force in Delhi, continues its decline, with little to no representation expected in the new Assembly.
Delhi’s Political Landscape: What Led to These Projections?
AAP’s Challenges & Kejriwal’s Exit as CM
- Arvind Kejriwal, who led Delhi for over 9 years and 7 months, resigned amid allegations related to the excise policy scandal.
- Atishi was sworn in as the new Chief Minister, making this election a major test of AAP’s governance model without Kejriwal at the helm.
- Anti-incumbency sentiment has impacted AAP’s seat count, but the party still maintains a strong voter base.
BJP’s Surge in Delhi
- The BJP has aggressively campaigned, focusing on law and order, corruption allegations against AAP, and Hindutva politics.
- Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah led multiple rallies, rallying strong support, especially in outer Delhi and middle-class urban areas.
- The party is expected to make big gains, but not enough to unseat AAP.
Congress’ Continued Decline
- Congress has failed to regain ground in Delhi, struggling with leadership issues and a lack of clear strategy.
- Despite Priyanka Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi campaigning, the party has failed to revive its presence, mirroring its 2020 election collapse.
Exit Polls: What to Expect?
Exit polls will provide a closer insight into voter sentiment, but their accuracy remains debatable. While betting markets project an AAP win with reduced seats, official exit polls from news agencies and political analysts may paint a different picture.
Exit polls will be released on major news channels shortly.
Predictions will vary, but a close fight between AAP and BJP is expected.
Final results will be declared on February 8, 2025.
Final Thoughts: A Tense Wait for the Official Verdict
The Delhi Assembly elections have set the stage for a high-stakes political showdown. While AAP is projected to return to power, the BJP’s significant seat gain signals shifting political dynamics in the capital.
As the city awaits the exit poll results, the bigger question remains—will AAP secure enough seats to govern comfortably, or will it face a tougher challenge in the new term?
Delhi Assembly Elections 2025 Exit Polls: Betting Markets Predict AAP Victory with Reduced Seats
